I have had this trouble with the activity/reply function on BuddyPress 1.5.1 too (and this is how I found this forum).
I’m using the Arras Theme, but I guess it should work on any theme, since no theme files are being edited.
Today, I have found out how to fix the 404-error on the reply-function, while commenting on an activity.
In the file /wp-content/plugins/buddypress/bp-activity/bp-activity-actions.php, there is an “!” missing on line 258.
This is the original code:
if ( !is_user_logged_in() || ( bp_is_activity_component() ) || !bp_is_current_action( ‘reply’ ) )
Change it to:
if ( !is_user_logged_in() || ( !bp_is_activity_component() ) || !bp_is_current_action( ‘reply’ ) )